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Shkumbini Peqin vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
CANC
13:00
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
2/8/20201st Division1st Division · Round 15Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin35%
×Draw25%
Besëlidhja Lezhë40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.37
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
60%
Shkumbini Peqin or Besëlidhja Lezhë
75%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
65%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
16%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
75%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
40%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
16%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
77%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
44%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
46%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
35%
level
25%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
40%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shkumbini Peqin host Besëlidhja Lezhë

February 8, 2020: Shkumbini Peqin take on Besëlidhja Lezhë in 1st Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shkumbini Peqin host Besëlidhja Lezhë at Stadiumi Shkumbini.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.