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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
CANC
11:00
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
10/27/20191st Division1st Division · Round 6Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë65%
×Draw19%
Shkumbini Peqin16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
2.27
Shkumbini Peqin
1.01

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 125% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
84%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Shkumbini Peqin
81%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
35%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
42%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
90%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
66%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
39%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
64%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
27%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
81%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.27

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
65%
level
19%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
16%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Besëlidhja Lezhë host Shkumbini Peqin

October 27, 2019: Besëlidhja Lezhë take on Shkumbini Peqin in 1st Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Besëlidhja Lezhë host Shkumbini Peqin at Stadiumi Besëlidhja.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.