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Shkumbini Peqin vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
11/7/20211st Division1st Division · Round 8Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin31%
×Draw24%
Besa Kavajë45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkumbini Peqin
1.36
Besa Kavajë
1.67

Besa Kavajë creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin
1.27
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin
2.13
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw
55%
Shkumbini Peqin or Besa Kavajë
76%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
69%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
14%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
74%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
39%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
16%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
81%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
50%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
41%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more
31%
level
24%
Besa Kavajë scores more
45%

Besa Kavajë at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkumbini Peqin vs Besa Kavajë

Shkumbini Peqin and Besa Kavajë drew 2-2 in 1st Division on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shkumbini in Peqin.