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Besa Kavajë vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
3/13/20221st Division1st Division · Round 23Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Besa Kavajë67%
×Draw19%
Shkumbini Peqin14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Kavajë
2.20
Shkumbini Peqin
0.87

Besa Kavajë creates 153% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Besa Kavajë
1.46
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Besa Kavajë
1.01
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Kavajë ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Besa Kavajë or draw
86%
Besa Kavajë or Shkumbini Peqin
81%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
33%

Winning margin

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
44%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
89%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
64%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
37%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
58%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
22%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
83%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Kavajë at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.01 · 102 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Kavajë attack 1.46 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.20

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Besa Kavajë scores more
67%
level
19%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
14%

Besa Kavajë at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Besa Kavajë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Kavajë vs Shkumbini Peqin

Besa Kavajë beat Shkumbini Peqin 4-0 in 1st Division on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Luz i Vogël in Luz i Vogël.