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Shkendija vs Renova — Cup 2020

Shkendija
Shkendijaadvanced
FT
5 – 0
Renova
Renova
R. Hebaj 54', 41'
A. Shala 45+1', 20'
Z. Merxhani 4'
10/20/2021CupCup · Round of 16Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shkendija52%
×Draw22%
Renova26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkendija
1.94
Renova
1.31

Shkendija creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Shkendija
2.38
Renova
2.00

allows per match

Shkendija
0.63
Renova
1.50

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par
Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Renova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw
74%
Shkendija or Renova
78%
Draw or Renova
48%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+
30%
Renova wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals
86%
Shkendija 2+ goals
58%
Shkendija 3+ goals
30%
Renova 1+ goals
73%
Renova 2+ goals
38%
Renova 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)
67%
Renova (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Renova away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 2.38 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Renova attack 2.00 + Shkendija defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shkendija scores more
52%
level
22%
Renova scores more
26%

Shkendija at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Z. Merxhani
20'
A. Shala
41'
R. Hebaj
45+1'
A. Shala
54'
R. Hebaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkendija vs Renova

Shkendija beat Renova 5-0 in Cup on October 20, 2021.

Goals: Z. Merxhani (4'), A. Shala (20', 45+1'), R. Hebaj (41', 54').

The match was played at Ecolog Arena in Tetovo.