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Renova vs Shkendija — First League 2019

Renova
Renova
CANC
00:00
Shkendija
Shkendija
9/11/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Renova31%
×Draw28%
Shkendija42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renova
1.07
Shkendija
1.30

Shkendija creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 105 away

creates per match

Renova
1.18
Shkendija
1.60

allows per match

Renova
1.00
Shkendija
0.97

finishing

Renova+0.00on par
Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Shkendija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Renova or draw
58%
Renova or Shkendija
72%
Draw or Shkendija
69%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+
12%
Shkendija wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals
66%
Renova 2+ goals
29%
Renova 3+ goals
9%
Shkendija 1+ goals
73%
Shkendija 2+ goals
37%
Shkendija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)
42%
Shkendija (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.18 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Shkendija attack 1.60 + Renova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Renova scores more
31%
level
28%
Shkendija scores more
42%

Shkendija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Renova face Shkendija (First League)

First League returns with Renova hosting Shkendija. Match starts September 11, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Renova host Shkendija at Ecolog Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.