Shkendija 6–1 Renova: Result & Stats | First League

Shkendija

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Renova

E. Totre 90+1'

S. Fazli 82'

A. Ibraimi 64' (pen)

B. Ibraimi 54'

A. Alimi 50'

O. Imeri 5'

R. Selmani 85'

11/24/2019

First League · Round 15Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Shkendija54%

×Draw25%

Renova22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShkendijaExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.95

Shkendija

1.65

Renova

0.95

Shkendija creates 74% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 52 away

1.87

creates per match

1.19

0.71

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Shkendija

1.87

Renova

1.19

allows per match

Shkendija

0.71

Renova

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw

78%

Shkendija or Renova

75%

Draw or Renova

46%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+

29%

Renova wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals

81%

Shkendija 2+ goals

49%

Shkendija 3+ goals

23%

Renova 1+ goals

61%

Renova 2+ goals

25%

Renova 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)

71%

Renova (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Renova away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.87 + Renova defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Renova attack 1.19 + Shkendija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shkendija scores more

54%

level

25%

Renova scores more

22%

Shkendija at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

23'

30'

43'

50'

54'

56'

63'

63'

64'

A. IbraimiPenalty

66'

S. Fazli← A. Ibraimi

71'

Z. Husmani← A. Alimi

71'

I. Bekjiri← B. Sadiki

76'

M. Murati

76'

M. Murati

78'

E. Bejtulai← B. Ibraimi

82'

S. Fazli

85'

R. Selmani

90+1'

E. Totre

Shkendija

Renova

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Alimi

⚽

Totre

⚽

Imeri

⚽

▼

Ibraimi

⚽

▼

Ibraimi

Junior

Manager: E. Gjoka

66'▲S. Fazli←▼A. Ibraimi

71'▲Z. Husmani←▼A. Alimi

78'▲E. Bejtulai←▼B. Ibraimi

Shkendija substitutes

FazliHusmaniBejtulai

Manager: B. Islami

56'▲I. Ademi←▼B. Miovski

63'▲A. Veliu←▼M. Saliji

71'▲I. Bekjiri←▼B. Sadiki

Renova substitutes

AdemiVeliuBekjiri