Shkendija 7–2 Makedonija GjP: Result & Stats

Shkendija

FT

7 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Makedonija GjP

11/10/2025

First League · Round 13Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Shkendija57%

×Draw23%

Makedonija GjP20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShkendijaExpected goals in this matchMakedonija GjP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.92

Shkendija

1.76

Makedonija GjP

0.92

Shkendija creates 91% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 94 away

1.87

creates per match

1.14

0.71

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Shkendija

1.87

Makedonija GjP

1.14

allows per match

Shkendija

0.71

Makedonija GjP

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Makedonija GjP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw

80%

Shkendija or Makedonija GjP

77%

Draw or Makedonija GjP

43%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+

32%

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals

83%

Shkendija 2+ goals

52%

Shkendija 3+ goals

26%

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

60%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

23%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)

75%

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.87 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Shkendija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shkendija scores more

57%

level

23%

Makedonija GjP scores more

20%

Shkendija at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff