Makedonija GjP 1–1 Shkendija: Result & Stats

Makedonija GjP

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shkendija

4/7/2024

First League · Round 26Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Makedonija GjP33%

×Draw27%

Shkendija40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Makedonija GjPExpected goals in this matchShkendija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.31

Makedonija GjP

1.17

Shkendija

1.31

Shkendija creates 12% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 105 away

1.36

creates per match

1.60

1.03

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Makedonija GjP

1.36

Shkendija

1.60

allows per match

Makedonija GjP

1.03

Shkendija

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Shkendija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw

60%

Makedonija GjP or Shkendija

73%

Draw or Shkendija

67%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

14%

Shkendija wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

69%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

33%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

11%

Shkendija 1+ goals

73%

Shkendija 2+ goals

38%

Shkendija 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

45%

Shkendija (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shkendija attack 1.60 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more

33%

level

27%

Shkendija scores more

40%

Shkendija at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff