Shkendija 2–1 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Shkendija

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ludogorets

B. Ibraimi 60'

L. Latifi 35'

D. Duarte 17'

8/21/2025

UEFA Europa League · Play-offsToše Proeski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shkendija39%

×Draw23%

Ludogorets38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShkendijaExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.64

Shkendija

1.65

Ludogorets

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 26 away

1.33

creates per match

1.27

2.00

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Shkendija

1.33

Ludogorets

1.27

allows per match

Shkendija

2.00

Ludogorets

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw

62%

Shkendija or Ludogorets

77%

Draw or Ludogorets

61%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+

19%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals

81%

Shkendija 2+ goals

49%

Shkendija 3+ goals

23%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

81%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

49%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)

50%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.33 + Ludogorets defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ludogorets attack 1.27 + Shkendija defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shkendija scores more

39%

level

23%

Ludogorets scores more

38%

Shkendija at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

D. Duarte↳ P. Stanic

35'

L. Latifi

39'

Arbin Zejnullai

60'

B. Ibraimi↳ L. Latifi

66'

I. Chochev← D. Duarte

66'

F. Kaloc← P. Stanic

66'

B. Tekpetey← M. Chouiar

72'

Pedro Naressi

72'

E. Krasniqi← A. Zejnullai

72'

V. Krstevski← L. Latifi

72'

M. Machado← E. Bile

77'

Ronaldo Romario Webster

81'

S. Ivanov← Erick Marcus

85'

F. Ramadani← B. Ibraimi

90+2'

M. Murati← F. Tamba

90+2'

A. Meliqi← A. Alhassan

Shots

Statistics

ShkendijaLudogorets

Overview

14Total Shots14

4Corners2

8Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target4

7Off Target8

3Blocked2

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2