Ludogorets 2–1 Shkendija: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchShkendija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.25

Ludogorets

0.86

Shkendija

1.25

Shkendija creates 45% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.33

1.16

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Ludogorets

1.40

Shkendija

1.33

allows per match

Ludogorets

1.16

Shkendija

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets+0.00on par

Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Shkendija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

55%

Ludogorets or Shkendija

71%

Draw or Shkendija

74%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

8%

Shkendija wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

58%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

21%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

6%

Shkendija 1+ goals

71%

Shkendija 2+ goals

36%

Shkendija 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

36%

Shkendija (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 1.40 + Shkendija defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.86

Shkendija attack 1.33 + Ludogorets defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ludogorets scores more

26%

level

29%

Shkendija scores more

45%

Shkendija at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

E. Kurtulus

24'

I. Chochev↳ D. Duarte

26'

Besart Ibraimi

26'

Liridon Latifi

64'

F. Tamba↳ B. Ibraimi

66'

E. Krasniqi← A. Zejnullai

68'

74'

74'

82'

83'

B. Tekpetey← Caio Vidal

89'

V. Krstevski← L. Latifi

91'

I. Yordanov← A. Nedyalkov

95'

Erick Marcus

98'

B. Tekpetey↳ F. Kaloc

106'

M. Murati← R. Webster

106'

K. Qaka← A. Alhassan

107'

S. Ivanov← Erick Marcus

112'

F. Ramadani← F. Tamba

112'

F. Ademi← K. Cake

120'

E. Bile↳ B. Tekpetey

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LudogoretsShkendija

Overview

62%Possession38%

28Total Shots8

4Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

28Total Shots8

11On Target1

10Off Target3

7Blocked4

Passing

62%Possession38%

Goalkeeping

0Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2

UEFA Europa League: Ludogorets 2–1 Shkendija

Ludogorets beat Shkendija 2-1 in UEFA Europa League on August 28, 2025.

Goals: E. Kurtulus (9'), I. Chochev (24'), F. Tamba (64'), B. Tekpetey (98'), E. Bile (120').

Ludogorets controlled possession (62%) and registered 28 shots to 8.

The match was played at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad.

Ludogorets vs Shkendija — UEFA Europa League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UEFA Europa League: Ludogorets 2–1 Shkendija