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Shkendija vs Bregalnica Štip — First League 2019

Shkendija
Shkendija
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
3/31/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Shkendija61%
×Draw23%
Bregalnica Štip16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shkendija
1.75
Bregalnica Štip
0.76

Shkendija creates 130% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 47 away

creates per match

Shkendija
1.87
Bregalnica Štip
0.81

allows per match

Shkendija
0.71
Bregalnica Štip
1.64

finishing

Shkendija+0.00on par
Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkendija ↓

Bregalnica Štip →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shkendija or draw
84%
Shkendija or Bregalnica Štip
77%
Draw or Bregalnica Štip
39%

Winning margin

Shkendija wins by 2+
35%
Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shkendija 1+ goals
83%
Shkendija 2+ goals
52%
Shkendija 3+ goals
25%
Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
53%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
18%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shkendija (draw refunded)
79%
Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkendija at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkendija attack 1.87 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bregalnica Štip attack 0.81 + Shkendija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shkendija scores more
61%
level
23%
Bregalnica Štip scores more
16%

Shkendija at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shkendija vs Bregalnica Štip

Shkendija beat Bregalnica Štip 4-1 in First League on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Ecolog Arena in Tetovo.