Bregalnica Štip 2–2 Shkendija: Result & Stats

Bregalnica Štip

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shkendija

11/25/2023

First League · Round 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bregalnica Štip32%

×Draw27%

Shkendija41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bregalnica ŠtipExpected goals in this matchShkendija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.35

Bregalnica Štip

1.17

Shkendija

1.35

Shkendija creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 105 away

1.37

creates per match

1.60

1.10

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip

1.37

Shkendija

1.60

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip

1.10

Shkendija

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Shkendija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw

59%

Bregalnica Štip or Shkendija

73%

Draw or Shkendija

68%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

13%

Shkendija wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

69%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

33%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

11%

Shkendija 1+ goals

74%

Shkendija 2+ goals

39%

Shkendija 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

44%

Shkendija (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 1.37 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shkendija attack 1.60 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more

32%

level

27%

Shkendija scores more

41%

Shkendija at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff