Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shirak vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Shirak
Shirak
FT
6 – 0
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
11/19/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shirak76%
×Draw14%
Alashkert II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak
2.83
Alashkert II
0.94

Shirak creates 201% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 64 away

creates per match

Shirak
3.07
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Shirak
0.50
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Shirak+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Shirak or draw
90%
Shirak or Alashkert II
86%
Draw or Alashkert II
24%

Winning margin

Shirak wins by 2+
55%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shirak 1+ goals
94%
Shirak 2+ goals
77%
Shirak 3+ goals
53%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
61%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
24%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shirak (draw refunded)
88%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak attack 3.07 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.83

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Shirak defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Shirak scores more
76%
level
14%
Alashkert II scores more
10%

Shirak at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Shirak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shirak vs Alashkert II

Shirak beat Alashkert II 6-0 in First League on November 19, 2021.

The match was played at Gyumri City Stadium in Gyumri.