Alashkert II 0–2 Shirak: Result & Stats

Alashkert II

FT

0 – 2

Shirak

9/19/2021

First League · Round 6Fut Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alashkert II17%

×Draw17%

Shirak66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alashkert IIExpected goals in this matchShirak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.60

Alashkert II

1.24

Shirak

2.60

Shirak creates 110% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

2.86

2.34

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Alashkert II

1.63

Shirak

2.86

allows per match

Alashkert II

2.34

Shirak

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par

Shirak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Shirak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw

34%

Alashkert II or Shirak

83%

Draw or Shirak

83%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+

6%

Shirak wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals

71%

Alashkert II 2+ goals

35%

Alashkert II 3+ goals

13%

Shirak 1+ goals

92%

Shirak 2+ goals

73%

Shirak 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)

20%

Shirak (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Shirak away — creates 2.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Shirak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.24

Shirak attack 2.86 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Alashkert II scores more

17%

level

17%

Shirak scores more

66%

Shirak at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shirak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff