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Shirak II vs Lernayin Artsakh II — First League 2019

Shirak II
Shirak II
CANC
11:00
Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
3/5/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shirak II56%
×Draw20%
Lernayin Artsakh II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak II
2.29
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.44

Shirak II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 9 away

creates per match

Shirak II
1.35
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00

allows per match

Shirak II
1.88
Lernayin Artsakh II
3.22

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par
Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Lernayin Artsakh II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw
76%
Shirak II or Lernayin Artsakh II
80%
Draw or Lernayin Artsakh II
44%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+
35%
Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals
90%
Shirak II 2+ goals
66%
Shirak II 3+ goals
40%
Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
76%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
42%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)
70%
Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Lernayin Artsakh II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.29

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shirak II scores more
56%
level
20%
Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
24%

Shirak II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shirak II host Lernayin Artsakh II

March 5, 2023: Shirak II take on Lernayin Artsakh II in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shirak II host Lernayin Artsakh II at Gyumri City Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.