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Lernayin Artsakh II vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Lernayin Artsakh II
Lernayin Artsakh II
FT
2 – 3
Shirak II
Shirak II
9/10/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Sisian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lernayin Artsakh II24%
×Draw18%
Shirak II58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lernayin Artsakh II
1.72
Shirak II
2.69

Shirak II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Lernayin Artsakh II
4.22
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Lernayin Artsakh II+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lernayin Artsakh II ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Lernayin Artsakh II or draw
42%
Lernayin Artsakh II or Shirak II
82%
Draw or Shirak II
76%

Winning margin

Lernayin Artsakh II wins by 2+
11%
Shirak II wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Lernayin Artsakh II 1+ goals
82%
Lernayin Artsakh II 2+ goals
51%
Lernayin Artsakh II 3+ goals
25%
Shirak II 1+ goals
93%
Shirak II 2+ goals
74%
Shirak II 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Lernayin Artsakh II (draw refunded)
29%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lernayin Artsakh II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lernayin Artsakh II attack 1.00 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.72

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Lernayin Artsakh II defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lernayin Artsakh II scores more
24%
level
18%
Shirak II scores more
58%

Shirak II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lernayin Artsakh II vs Shirak II

Shirak II beat Lernayin Artsakh II 3-2 in First League on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sisian Stadium in Sisian.