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Shirak II vs Ararat II — First League 2019

Shirak II
Shirak II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ararat II
Ararat II
4/30/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Shirak II36%
×Draw23%
Ararat II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak II
1.60
Ararat II
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Shirak II
1.35
Ararat II
1.55

allows per match

Shirak II
1.88
Ararat II
1.84

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par
Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Ararat II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw
59%
Shirak II or Ararat II
77%
Draw or Ararat II
64%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+
18%
Ararat II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals
80%
Shirak II 2+ goals
47%
Shirak II 3+ goals
22%
Ararat II 1+ goals
82%
Ararat II 2+ goals
51%
Ararat II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)
47%
Ararat II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shirak II scores more
36%
level
23%
Ararat II scores more
41%

Ararat II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shirak II vs Ararat II

Ararat II beat Shirak II 2-1 in First League on April 30, 2026.