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Ararat II vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Ararat II
Ararat II
FT
4 – 6
HT: 3 – 0
Shirak II
Shirak II
8/15/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ararat II53%
×Draw20%
Shirak II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat II
2.23
Shirak II
1.52

Ararat II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ararat II
2.02
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Ararat II
1.88
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw
74%
Ararat II or Shirak II
80%
Draw or Shirak II
47%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+
32%
Shirak II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals
89%
Ararat II 2+ goals
65%
Ararat II 3+ goals
38%
Shirak II 1+ goals
78%
Shirak II 2+ goals
45%
Shirak II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)
67%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.23

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ararat II scores more
53%
level
20%
Shirak II scores more
26%

Ararat II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ararat II 4–6 Shirak II

Shirak II beat Ararat II 6-4 in First League on August 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.