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Shirak II vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Shirak II
Shirak II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
11/9/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Shirak II46%
×Draw22%
Alashkert II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak II
1.97
Alashkert II
1.63

Shirak II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 64 away

creates per match

Shirak II
1.35
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Shirak II
1.88
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Shirak II+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak II ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Shirak II or draw
68%
Shirak II or Alashkert II
78%
Draw or Alashkert II
54%

Winning margin

Shirak II wins by 2+
26%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shirak II 1+ goals
86%
Shirak II 2+ goals
58%
Shirak II 3+ goals
31%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
80%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
48%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Shirak II (draw refunded)
59%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.88 · 85 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak II attack 1.35 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.97

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Shirak II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shirak II scores more
46%
level
22%
Alashkert II scores more
32%

Shirak II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shirak II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shirak II vs Alashkert II

Shirak II beat Alashkert II 3-2 in First League on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Gyumri City Stadium in Gyumri.