Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Alashkert II vs Shirak II — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
2 – 2
Shirak II
Shirak II
10/16/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Alashkert II45%
×Draw21%
Shirak II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
2.03
Shirak II
1.75

Alashkert II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 84 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
Shirak II
1.17

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
Shirak II
2.43

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
Shirak II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Shirak II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
66%
Alashkert II or Shirak II
79%
Draw or Shirak II
55%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
25%
Shirak II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
87%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
60%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
33%
Shirak II 1+ goals
83%
Shirak II 2+ goals
52%
Shirak II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
57%
Shirak II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Shirak II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.43 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Shirak II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.03

Shirak II attack 1.17 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alashkert II scores more
45%
level
21%
Shirak II scores more
34%

Alashkert II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alashkert II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Alashkert II 2–2 Shirak II

Alashkert II and Shirak II drew 2-2 in First League on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.