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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Veles — First League 2024

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Preview
15:00
Veles
Veles
4/17/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Shinnik
45%
Shinnik Yaroslavl
model favours
45%27%29%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl45%
×Draw27%
Veles29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.41
Veles
1.08

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 31% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 12 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Veles
1.17

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Veles
1.75

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
71%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Veles
73%
Draw or Veles
55%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
21%
Veles wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
76%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
41%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
17%
Veles 1+ goals
66%
Veles 2+ goals
29%
Veles 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
61%
Veles (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

Veles away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.07 + Veles defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Veles attack 1.17 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
45%
level
27%
Veles scores more
29%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shinnik Yaroslavl win just 14% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Yaroslavl
DDDDW
Veles
WDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shinnik Yaroslavl face Veles (First League)

First League returns with Shinnik Yaroslavl hosting Veles. Match starts April 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shinnik Yaroslavl host Veles at Stadion Shinnik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.