Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ska-khabarovsk

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Preview

15:00

Ska-khabarovsk

8/19/2026

First League · Round 7Stadion Shinnik

Big match

44%

Shinnik Yaroslavl

model favours

44%29%28%

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl44%

×Draw29%

Ska-khabarovsk28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchSka-khabarovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.25

Ska-khabarovsk

0.93

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 34% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 47 away

1.07

creates per match

0.91

0.95

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Ska-khabarovsk

0.91

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.95

Ska-khabarovsk

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

72%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Ska-khabarovsk

71%

Draw or Ska-khabarovsk

56%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

20%

Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

71%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

36%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

13%

Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals

61%

Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals

24%

Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

61%

Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.43 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.07 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.91 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

44%

level

29%

Ska-khabarovsk scores more

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Yaroslavl

DDDDW

Ska-khabarovsk

LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff