Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Mordovia Saransk

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mordovia Saransk

7/13/2019

First League · Round 2Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl44%

×Draw27%

Mordovia Saransk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchMordovia Saransk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.04

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.37

Mordovia Saransk

1.04

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 32% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 36 away

1.13

creates per match

1.00

1.07

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.13

Mordovia Saransk

1.00

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Mordovia Saransk

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Mordovia Saransk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

72%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Mordovia Saransk

73%

Draw or Mordovia Saransk

56%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

21%

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

75%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

40%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

16%

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

65%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

28%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

61%

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

44%

level

27%

Mordovia Saransk scores more

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff