Mordovia Saransk 0–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Mordovia Saransk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shinnik Yaroslavl

4/13/2019

First League · Round 31Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mordovia Saransk37%

×Draw29%

Shinnik Yaroslavl35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mordovia SaranskExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.11

Mordovia Saransk

1.15

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 123 away

0.81

creates per match

0.99

1.24

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk

0.81

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk

1.24

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw

65%

Mordovia Saransk or Shinnik Yaroslavl

71%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

63%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

15%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

68%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

32%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

11%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

67%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

51%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.81 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more

37%

level

29%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

35%

Mordovia Saransk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mordovia Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff