Shinnik Yaroslavl 2–2 Krylya Sovetov

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Krylya Sovetov

4/24/2021

First League · Round 38Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl28%

×Draw28%

Krylya Sovetov44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.31

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

Krylya Sovetov

1.31

Krylya Sovetov creates 32% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 22 away

1.13

creates per match

1.55

1.07

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.13

Krylya Sovetov

1.55

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Krylya Sovetov

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

56%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Krylya Sovetov

72%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

72%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

10%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

63%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

8%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

73%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

38%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

39%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

28%

level

28%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

44%

Krylya Sovetov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff