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Krylya Sovetov vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10/28/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Krylya Sovetov72%
×Draw18%
Shinnik Yaroslavl10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
2.24
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.70

Krylya Sovetov creates 220% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 123 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
3.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
0.41
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
90%
Krylya Sovetov or Shinnik Yaroslavl
82%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
28%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
48%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
89%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
65%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
38%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
50%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
88%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.24

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
72%
level
18%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
10%

Krylya Sovetov at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Krylya Sovetov 4–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Krylya Sovetov beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 4-1 in First League on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.