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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Krasava Odintsovo — Second League - Group 2 2020

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
4/23/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl57%
×Draw23%
Krasava Odintsovo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.81
Krasava Odintsovo
0.97

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 87% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.13
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.44
Krasava Odintsovo
1.50

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Krasava Odintsovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
80%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Krasava Odintsovo
77%
Draw or Krasava Odintsovo
43%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
33%
Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
84%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
54%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
27%
Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
62%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
25%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
74%
Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Krasava Odintsovo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 2.13 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.50 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
57%
level
23%
Krasava Odintsovo scores more
20%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Shinnik Yaroslavl 3–2 Krasava Odintsovo

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Krasava Odintsovo 3-2 in Second League - Group 2 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.