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Krasava Odintsovo vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Second League - Group 2 2020

Krasava Odintsovo
Krasava Odintsovo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
5/22/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 9Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Krasava Odintsovo36%
×Draw27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasava Odintsovo
1.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.87
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.56

allows per match

Krasava Odintsovo
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.63

finishing

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasava Odintsovo ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krasava Odintsovo or draw
63%
Krasava Odintsovo or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
64%

Winning margin

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+
16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals
71%
Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals
36%
Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals
13%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
72%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
37%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)
49%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasava Odintsovo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.87 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.56 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Krasava Odintsovo scores more
36%
level
27%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
37%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasava Odintsovo vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Krasava Odintsovo 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.