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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Kazanka — Second League - Group 2 2020

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kazanka
Kazanka
9/30/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl58%
×Draw24%
Kazanka18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.68
Kazanka
0.80

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 110% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.13
Kazanka
1.16

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.44
Kazanka
1.23

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Kazanka+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Kazanka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
82%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Kazanka
76%
Draw or Kazanka
42%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
32%
Kazanka wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
81%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
50%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
24%
Kazanka 1+ goals
55%
Kazanka 2+ goals
19%
Kazanka 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
77%
Kazanka (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

Kazanka away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 2.13 + Kazanka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.68

Kazanka attack 1.16 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
58%
level
24%
Kazanka scores more
18%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Kazanka

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Kazanka 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.