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Kazanka vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kazanka
Kazanka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
8/1/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kazanka27%
×Draw26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazanka
1.05
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.45

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kazanka
1.47
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.56

allows per match

Kazanka
1.33
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.63

finishing

Kazanka+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazanka ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kazanka or draw
54%
Kazanka or Shinnik Yaroslavl
74%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%

Winning margin

Kazanka wins by 2+
10%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kazanka 1+ goals
65%
Kazanka 2+ goals
28%
Kazanka 3+ goals
9%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
77%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
42%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kazanka (draw refunded)
37%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazanka at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazanka attack 1.47 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.05

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.56 + Kazanka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kazanka scores more
27%
level
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
46%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Kazanka 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Kazanka 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.