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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2026

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
4/3/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 34Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl52%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Bryansk21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.42
Dinamo Bryansk
0.78

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 82% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 21 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.08
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
79%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Dinamo Bryansk
73%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
48%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
26%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
76%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
41%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
17%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
54%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
72%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.08 · 121 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
52%
level
27%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
21%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–1 Dinamo Bryansk

Dinamo Bryansk beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-0 in First League on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.