Dinamo Bryansk 1–3 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

R. Emeljanov 66' (OG)

A. Stavpets 82'

D. Malykhin 51'

D. Osipov 15' (OG)

9/27/2023

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk22%

×Draw22%

Shinnik Yaroslavl57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.00

Dinamo Bryansk

1.15

Shinnik Yaroslavl

2.00

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

0.86

creates per match

1.57

2.43

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.86

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.57

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

2.43

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

43%

Dinamo Bryansk or Shinnik Yaroslavl

78%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

78%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

8%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

32%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

11%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

86%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

59%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.86 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.57 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

22%

level

22%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

57%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

D. OsipovOwn goal

46'

I. Andreev← E. Nizamutdinov

46'

A. Samsonov← D. Samoylov

50'

D. Luppa

51'

D. Malykhin

58'

A. Samsonov

59'

R. Emeljanov← M. Gashchenkov

60'

K. Gordeev← A. Medvedev

66'

R. EmeljanovOwn goal

70'

A. Stavpets← D. Malykhin

73'

A. Kanishchev← P. Kudryashov

82'

A. Stavpets

83'

M. Gaydukov← D. Pikatov

83'

T. Dudayti← A. Novikov

83'

A. Evinov← D. Kuptsov

83'

P. Kuznetsov← A. Malakhov

Dinamo

Shinnik

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Fomichev

60'▲K. Gordeev←▼A. Medvedev

73'▲A. Kanishchev←▼P. Kudryashov

83'▲M. Gaydukov←▼D. Pikatov

83'▲T. Dudayti←▼A. Novikov

83'▲A. Evinov←▼D. Kuptsov

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

GordeevKanishchevGaydukovDudaytiEvinov

Manager: D. Khomukha

46'▲I. Andreev←▼E. Nizamutdinov

46'▲A. Samsonov←▼D. Samoylov

59'▲R. Emeljanov←▼M. Gashchenkov

70'▲A. Stavpets←▼D. Malykhin

83'▲P. Kuznetsov←▼A. Malakhov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

AndreevSamsonovEmeljanovStavpetsKuznetsov

Cup: Dinamo Bryansk 1–3 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Dinamo Bryansk 3-1 in Cup on September 27, 2023.

Goals: D. Osipov (15' o.g.), D. Malykhin (51'), R. Emeljanov (66' o.g.), A. Stavpets (82').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.

Dinamo Bryansk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Dinamo Bryansk 1–3 Shinnik Yaroslavl