Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Chertanovo Moscow

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chertanovo Moscow

N. Golub 65'

A. Nadolskiy 72'

9/23/2020

First League · Round 11Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl41%

×Draw27%

Chertanovo Moscow32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.14

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.34

Chertanovo Moscow

1.14

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 18% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 53 away

1.14

creates per match

1.21

1.07

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.14

Chertanovo Moscow

1.21

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.07

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

68%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Chertanovo Moscow

73%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

59%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

19%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

74%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

39%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

15%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

68%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

32%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

57%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.14 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

41%

level

27%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

32%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Ilya Molteninov

29'

Artem Schadin

44'

Dmitri Velikorodnyi

46'

I. Oleynikov← A. Nosov

46'

N. Golub← N. Dorofeev

49'

Nikita Pershin

59'

T. Pukhov← A. Shchadin

59'

M. Polyakov← A. Gongapshev

61'

N. Suleymanov← D. Velikorodny

62'

E. Nasedkin← I. Oleynikov

65'

D. Molchanov← I. Molteninov

65'

67'

68'

72'

76'

D. Tyumentsev← N. Pershin

80'

Y. Zavezen← E. Rudkovskiy

84'

D. Molodnyakov← Y. Gudkov

Shinnik4-4-2

Chertanovo4-3-3

28

▼

Moltenino

46

▼

Pershin

68

Gerchikov

21

▼

Velikorod

10

▼

Rudkovski

30

Lyakhov

66

▼

Gudkov

19

⚽

4

13

81

16

17

8

64

27

▼

15

19

5

70

▼

Nosov

77

▼

Gongapshe

89

▼

Dorofeev

Manager: A. Pobegalov

46'▲I. Oleynikov←▼A. Nosov

46'▲N. Golub←▼N. Dorofeev

59'▲T. Pukhov←▼A. Shchadin

59'▲M. Polyakov←▼A. Gongapshev

62'▲E. Nasedkin←▼I. Oleynikov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

7Oleynikov21Golub11Pukhov43Polyakov14Nasedkin3Strelov13Matyusha72Maslennikov

Manager: A. Dmitriev

61'▲N. Suleymanov←▼D. Velikorodny

65'▲D. Molchanov←▼I. Molteninov

76'▲D. Tyumentsev←▼N. Pershin

80'▲Y. Zavezen←▼E. Rudkovskiy

84'▲D. Molodnyakov←▼Y. Gudkov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

6Suleymanov11Molchanov7Tyumentsev31Zavezen93Molodnyakov55Radionov70Levin