Chertanovo Moscow 1–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

M. Saveljev 48'

I. Azyavin 52', 45'

9/14/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow29%

×Draw27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.40

Chertanovo Moscow

1.09

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.40

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 28% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 16 away

1.55

creates per match

1.56

1.23

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.55

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.56

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.23

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

56%

Chertanovo Moscow or Shinnik Yaroslavl

73%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

71%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

11%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

66%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

30%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

10%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

75%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

41%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

40%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.56 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

29%

level

27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

44%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

48'

52'

60'

61'

68'

P. Kuznetsov← I. Azyavin

68'

I. Belous← E. Nizamutdinov

72'

M. Lyamzin← A. Selyukov

72'

N. Saltykov← K. Dudkin

76'

80'

80'

83'

83'

A. Tekuchev← D. Samoylov

83'

D. Shilov← A. Shchadin

85'

P. Popov← M. Saveljev

87'

I. Kozhukhar← A. Gongapshev

Chertanovo

Shinnik

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Saveljev

Manager: D. Pervushin

72'▲M. Lyamzin←▼A. Selyukov

72'▲N. Saltykov←▼K. Dudkin

85'▲P. Popov←▼M. Saveljev

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

LyamzinSaltykovPopov

Manager: V. Evseev

68'▲P. Kuznetsov←▼I. Azyavin

68'▲I. Belous←▼E. Nizamutdinov

83'▲A. Tekuchev←▼D. Samoylov

83'▲D. Shilov←▼A. Shchadin

87'▲I. Kozhukhar←▼A. Gongapshev

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

KuznetsovBelousTekuchevShilovKozhukhar

Second League - Group 2: Chertanovo Moscow 1–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Chertanovo Moscow 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 14, 2021.

Goals: I. Azyavin (45', 52'), M. Saveljev (48').

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.

Chertanovo Moscow vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Chertanovo Moscow 1–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl