Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–3 Avangard Kursk

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Avangard Kursk

E. Nizamutdinov 78'

R. Minaev 66'

A. Batyutin 48'

A. Fedchuk 31'

8/3/2019

First League · Round 6Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl41%

×Draw29%

Avangard Kursk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.02

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.22

Avangard Kursk

1.02

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 20% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 40 away

1.14

creates per match

0.97

1.06

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.14

Avangard Kursk

0.97

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.06

Avangard Kursk

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

69%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Avangard Kursk

71%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

59%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

18%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

70%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

34%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

12%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

64%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

27%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

57%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.14 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Avangard Kursk attack 0.97 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

41%

level

29%

Avangard Kursk scores more

31%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. Fedchuk

37'

V. Aleynikov

41'

A. Dashayev

46'

E. Nizamutdinov← T. Pukhov

46'

M. Bakaev← V. Aleynikov

46'

I. Viznovich← I. Oleynikov

48'

A. Batyutin

63'

I. Kubyshkin← M. Grigorjev

66'

R. Minaev

69'

A. Ektov

69'

K. Mashukov← A. Batyutin

69'

M. Zemskov← R. Minaev

71'

A. Fedchuk

78'

E. Nizamutdinov

79'

A. Lelyukaev← D. Nikitin

83'

A. Gongapshev← S. Samodin

85'

I. Viznovich

87'

V. Tskhovrebov← N. Drozdov

Shinnik

Avangard

13

Chagrov

4

Dashaev

24

Gotsuk

97

▼

Nikitin

86

Chirkin

9

▼

Grigorjev

20

Breev

18

⚽

▼

Batyutin

14

Kovalev

10

⚽

Fedchuk

77

⚽

▼

16

94

2

13

▼

Drozdov

5

Zinkov

27

▼

Aleynikov

8

Kozhemyak

11

▼

Pukhov

10

▼

Oleynikov

20

Ektov

22

▼

Samodin

Manager: A. Pobegalov

46'▲E. Nizamutdinov←▼T. Pukhov

46'▲M. Bakaev←▼V. Aleynikov

46'▲I. Viznovich←▼I. Oleynikov

83'▲A. Gongapshev←▼S. Samodin

87'▲V. Tskhovrebov←▼N. Drozdov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

9Nizamutdinov88Bakaev98Viznovich77Gongapshev3Tskhovrebov1Antipin4Steshin45Betyuzhnov50Vovk72Maslennikov97Goshev

Manager: M. Iskakov

63'▲I. Kubyshkin←▼M. Grigorjev

69'▲K. Mashukov←▼A. Batyutin

69'▲M. Zemskov←▼R. Minaev

79'▲A. Lelyukaev←▼D. Nikitin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

23Kubyshkin7Mashukov8Zemskov66Lelyukaev1Sautin6Kayumov17Sinyaev22Voynov40Timoshin