Avangard Kursk 2–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Avangard Kursk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

K. Mashukov 42'

R. Minaev 32'

S. Samodin 49'

E. Nizamutdinov 44'

11/17/2019

First League · Round 24Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Avangard Kursk45%

×Draw26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.11

Avangard Kursk

1.46

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.11

Avangard Kursk creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 123 away

1.43

creates per match

0.99

1.24

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.43

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.24

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

71%

Avangard Kursk or Shinnik Yaroslavl

74%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

55%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

22%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

77%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

43%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

18%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

67%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

30%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

61%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.50 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.43 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

45%

level

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

29%

Avangard Kursk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

10'

18'

32'

42'

44'

46'

N. Drozdov← T. Pukhov

49'

S. Samodin

51'

A. Fedchuk

58'

K. Gotsuk

63'

K. Kovalev← A. Lelyukaev

65'

I. Viznovich← S. Samodin

71'

A. Ektov← I. Oleynikov

73'

A. Kasaev← A. Fedchuk

73'

D. Kayumov← I. Kubyshkin

90'

A. Ektov

90+4'

N. Matskharashvili← I. Viznovich

Avangard

Shinnik

16

4

94

17

88

▼

27

8

15

10

▼

Oleynikov

9

⚽

Nizamutdi

22

⚽

▼

13

40

4

24

66

▼

Lelyukaev

8

Zemskov

87

Korobov

23

▼

Kubyshkin

7

⚽

Mashukov

10

▼

Fedchuk

77

⚽

Minaev

Manager: O. Vasilenko

63'▲K. Kovalev←▼A. Lelyukaev

73'▲A. Kasaev←▼A. Fedchuk

73'▲D. Kayumov←▼I. Kubyshkin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

14Kovalev3Kasaev6Kayumov1Sautin20Breev86Chirkin97Nikitin

Manager: A. Pobegalov

10'▲T. Pukhov←▼M. Bakaev

46'▲N. Drozdov←▼T. Pukhov

65'▲I. Viznovich←▼S. Samodin

71'▲A. Ektov←▼I. Oleynikov

90+4'▲N. Matskharashvili←▼I. Viznovich

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

11Pukhov13Drozdov98Viznovich20Ektov99Matskharashvili1Antipin2Shcherbakov50Vovk

First League: Avangard Kursk 2–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl

Avangard Kursk and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 2-2 in First League on November 17, 2019.

Goals: R. Minaev (32'), K. Mashukov (42'), E. Nizamutdinov (44'), S. Samodin (49').

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.

Avangard Kursk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Avangard Kursk 2–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl