Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–0 Avangard Kursk

Shinnik Yaroslavl

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avangard Kursk

M. Zemskov 90+3'

9/2/2017

First League · Round 11Stadion Urozhaj (Karavaevo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl40%

×Draw28%

Avangard Kursk32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.23

Avangard Kursk

1.06

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 16% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 42 away

1.15

creates per match

1.05

1.06

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.15

Avangard Kursk

1.05

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.06

Avangard Kursk

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

68%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Avangard Kursk

72%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

60%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

17%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

71%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

35%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

13%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

65%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

29%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

56%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 125 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.15 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Avangard Kursk attack 1.05 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

40%

level

28%

Avangard Kursk scores more

32%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

V. Kamilov← N. Drozdov

62'

S. Kramarenko← N. Bezlikhotnov

63'

R. Bolov← D. Voynov

69'

M. Zemskov← E. Nizamutdinov

79'

I. Petrov← D. Korobov

80'

D. Sinyaev← I. Alshin

83'

S. Kagermazov← D. Samoylov

90+3'

M. Zemskov

Shinnik

Avangard

1

71

25

4

97

21

▼

Voynov

52

Netfullin

87

▼

Korobov

10

Gurfov

20

Podolyak

70

▼

16

23

2

78

11

99

▼

Bezlikhot

13

▼

Drozdov

17

Shchadin

15

▼

Samoylov

9

▼

Nizamutdi

7

Bulia

Manager: A. Pobegalov

62'▲V. Kamilov←▼N. Drozdov

62'▲S. Kramarenko←▼N. Bezlikhotnov

69'▲M. Zemskov←▼E. Nizamutdinov

83'▲S. Kagermazov←▼D. Samoylov

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

21Kamilov70Kramarenko8Zemskov6Kagermazov4Chalov5Evseev22Antipin65Zhestokov75Fatikhov90Lyakh

Manager: I. Belyaev

63'▲R. Bolov←▼D. Voynov

79'▲I. Petrov←▼D. Korobov

80'▲D. Sinyaev←▼I. Alshin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

58Bolov95Petrov17Sinyaev8Imullin12Kozyrev19Foroponov22Voynov

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Avangard Kursk

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Avangard Kursk 1-0 in First League on September 2, 2017.

Goals: M. Zemskov (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Urozhaj (Karavaevo).

Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Avangard Kursk — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Avangard Kursk