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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2024

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Preview
15:00
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
8/8/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Stadion Shinnik
Big match
39%
Shinnik Yaroslavl
model favours
39%30%31%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl39%
×Draw30%
Arsenal Tula31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.09
Arsenal Tula
0.94

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 40 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.05
Arsenal Tula
0.93

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.95
Arsenal Tula
1.13

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
69%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Arsenal Tula
70%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
61%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
16%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
66%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
30%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
10%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
61%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
24%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
56%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.05 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Arsenal Tula attack 0.93 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
39%
level
30%
Arsenal Tula scores more
31%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shinnik Yaroslavl win just 14% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Yaroslavl
DDDDW
Tula
WDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shinnik Yaroslavl face Arsenal Tula (First League)

First League returns with Shinnik Yaroslavl hosting Arsenal Tula. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shinnik Yaroslavl host Arsenal Tula at Stadion Shinnik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.