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Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
7/25/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arsenal Tula44%
×Draw28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.32
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

Arsenal Tula creates 33% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 123 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.99
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
72%
Arsenal Tula or Shinnik Yaroslavl
72%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
56%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
20%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
73%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
38%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
15%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
63%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
26%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
61%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
44%
level
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
28%

Arsenal Tula at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Arsenal Tula and Shinnik Yaroslavl drew 1-1 in First League on July 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.