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Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula — First League 2018

Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Z. Fedorov 66'
C. Gogoua 32'
A. Kalmykov 71'
4/20/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 29Stadion Shinnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl39%
×Draw30%
Arsenal Tula32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.14
Arsenal Tula
1.00

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 14% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.13
Arsenal Tula
0.94

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.07
Arsenal Tula
1.15

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw
68%
Shinnik Yaroslavl or Arsenal Tula
70%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
61%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
16%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
68%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
32%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
11%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
63%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
26%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
55%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 122 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.15 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.13 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Arsenal Tula attack 0.94 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
39%
level
30%
Arsenal Tula scores more
32%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Daniil Penchikov
32'
C. Gogoua
42'
Dmitriy Samoilov
46'
N. Razdorskikh← M. Brnović
46'
A. Kalmykov← M. Ahlinvi
46'
S. Tkachev← K. Bogdanets
46'
D. Lipovoy← A. Khabibov
57'
P. Shakuro← D. Samoylov
66'
Z. Fedorov
70'
N. Miroshnichenko← T. Shipunov
71'
A. Kalmykov
80'
V. Zinkov← R. Kul
80'
S. Alfred← Z. Fedorov
80'
I. Geloyan← U. Đuranović
90'
Vyacheslav Zinkov

Statistics

ShinnikArsenal
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula

Shinnik Yaroslavl beat Arsenal Tula 2-1 in First League on April 20, 2025.

Goals: C. Gogoua (32'), Z. Fedorov (66'), A. Kalmykov (71').

The match was played at Stadion Shinnik in Yaroslavl'.