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Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
10:00
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
6/6/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 38IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
39%
V-varen Nagasaki
model favours
35%26%39%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse35%
×Draw26%
V-varen Nagasaki39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.27
V-varen Nagasaki
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.15
V-varen Nagasaki
1.10

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.59
V-varen Nagasaki
1.40

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
61%
Shimizu S-pulse or V-varen Nagasaki
74%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
65%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
15%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
72%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
36%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
14%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
74%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
39%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
47%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.10 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
35%
level
26%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
39%

V-varen Nagasaki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Nagasaki
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shimizu S-pulse face V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Shimizu S-pulse hosting V-varen Nagasaki. Match starts June 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shimizu S-pulse host V-varen Nagasaki at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.