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Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
04:00
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
11/7/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 14IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
39%
Shimizu S-pulse
model favours
39%28%32%

Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse39%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.23
Tokyo Verdy
1.09

Shimizu S-pulse creates 13% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.14
Tokyo Verdy
0.64

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.54
Tokyo Verdy
1.32

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
68%
Shimizu S-pulse or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
61%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
17%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
71%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
35%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
13%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
66%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
30%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
55%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.14 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.64 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
39%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
32%

Shimizu S-pulse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
50%Possession46%
79%Pass accuracy76%
12.0Shots10.6
1.17xGBiggest gap0.92
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseTokyo Verdy

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Shimizu S-pulse
1
Draws
1
Tokyo Verdy
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%
1–01–01–31–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Verdy
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shimizu S-pulse face Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Shimizu S-pulse hosting Tokyo Verdy. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shimizu S-pulse host Tokyo Verdy at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.