Shimizu S-pulse 2–1 Tokyo Verdy: Result & Stats

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tokyo Verdy

Oh Se-Hun 90'

K. Kitazume 45+1'

N. Hayashi 6'

4/8/2023

J2 League · Round 8IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse52%

×Draw25%

Tokyo Verdy23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchTokyo Verdy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.01

Shimizu S-pulse

1.64

Tokyo Verdy

1.01

Shimizu S-pulse creates 62% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 130 away

2.02

creates per match

1.38

0.64

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

2.02

Tokyo Verdy

1.38

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

0.64

Tokyo Verdy

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Tokyo Verdy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

77%

Shimizu S-pulse or Tokyo Verdy

75%

Draw or Tokyo Verdy

48%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

28%

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

81%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

49%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

23%

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

64%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

27%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

69%

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 2.02 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

52%

level

25%

Tokyo Verdy scores more

23%

Shimizu S-pulse at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

N. Hayashi

37'

B. Vásquez← R. Kajikawa

39'

Thiago Santana

40'

45+1'

K. Kitazume↳ K. Nakayama

46'

R. Kato← T. Sakano

61'

K. Kitagawa← Carlinhos Júnior

67'

Y. Kamiya← T. Inui

67'

Oh Se-Hun← Thiago Santana

72'

Y. Tsunashima← K. Saito

72'

K. Sagawa← K. Kawamura

78'

K. Nishizawa← K. Nakayama

78'

82'

90+3'

90'

Shimizu

Tokyo

1

6

5

16

2

13

⚽

Hayashi

4

▼

Kajikawa

8

▼

Saito

7

▼

Morita

11

▼

Sakano

29

▼

57

4

50

5

⚽

Kitazume

33

▼

Inui

14

Shirasaki

3

▼

Ronaldo

15

Kishimoto

11

A

▼

Nakayama

9

▼

Santana

10

▼

Júnior

Manager: T. Akiba

61'▲K. Kitagawa←▼Carlinhos Júnior

67'▲Y. Kamiya←▼T. Inui

67'▲Oh Se-Hun←▼Thiago Santana

78'▲K. Nishizawa←▼K. Nakayama

78'▲K. Miyamoto←▼Ronaldo

Shimizu S-pulse substitutes

45Kitagawa7Kamiya20Se-Hun16Nishizawa13Miyamoto1Ōkubo38Ibayashi

Manager: H. Jofuku

37'▲B. Vásquez←▼R. Kajikawa

46'▲R. Kato←▼T. Sakano

72'▲Y. Tsunashima←▼K. Saito

72'▲K. Sagawa←▼K. Kawamura

82'▲M. Engels←▼K. Morita

Tokyo Verdy substitutes

18Vásquez26Kato23Tsunashima30Sagawa14Engels15Chida21Nagasawa