Shimizu S-pulse 0–3 Tokushima Vortis

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tokushima Vortis

Y. Kakita 90+2'

K. Iwao 54' (pen)

T. Miyashiro 28'

4/4/2021

J1 League · Round 7IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse44%

×Draw25%

Tokushima Vortis30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.21

Shimizu S-pulse

1.51

Tokushima Vortis

1.21

Shimizu S-pulse creates 25% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 22 away

1.34

creates per match

0.77

1.66

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.34

Tokushima Vortis

0.77

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.66

Tokushima Vortis

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

70%

Shimizu S-pulse or Tokushima Vortis

75%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

56%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

22%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

78%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

44%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

19%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

70%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

34%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

59%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 114 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.34 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.51

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.77 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

44%

level

25%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

30%

Shimizu S-pulse at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Iwao

Tokushima Vortis · M

8.0

Match Events

28'

T. Miyashiro

46'

K. Nakayama← S. Kaneko

46'

T. Hara← N. Fukumori

46'

Carlinhos Júnior← Y. Goto

52'

Yuki KakitaGoal cancelled

54'

K. IwaoPenalty

57'

K. Nakamura← K. Nishizawa

62'

A. Hamashita← M. Watai

71'

Yuito Suzuki← Y. Kawai

77'

J. Fujita← T. Suzuki

77'

K. Sugimori← S. Fujiwara

83'

Diego← T. Tamukai

83'

A. Kawata← T. Miyashiro

90+2'

Y. Kakita↳ T. Kishimoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuTokushima

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots12

6Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots12

3On Target6

7Off Target2

5Blocked4

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

462Total Passes426

387Accurate Passes348

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

0Offsides1