Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shimizu S-pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
11:00
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2/27/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 23IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
47%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
model favours
27%26%47%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in 15 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse27%
×Draw26%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.03
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.47

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 43% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.13
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.37

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.56
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.93

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
53%
Shimizu S-pulse or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
74%
Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima
73%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
10%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
64%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
28%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
9%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
77%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
43%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
36%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.13 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.37 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
27%
level
26%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
47%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Attack-heavy
50%Possession50%
78%Pass accuracy74%
13.2ShotsBiggest gap17.2
1.33xG1.61
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseSanfrecce Hiroshima

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Shimizu S-pulse
3
Draws
1
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
1–13–10–00–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Hiroshima
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shimizu S-pulse face Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Shimizu S-pulse hosting Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Match starts February 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shimizu S-pulse host Sanfrecce Hiroshima at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.