Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Shimizu S-pulse

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

H. Araki 12' (OG)

T. Shiotani 65'

2/26/2025

J1 League · Round 3IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse36%

×Draw26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shimizu S-pulseExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.41

Shimizu S-pulse

1.35

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.12

1.70

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.53

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.12

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse

1.70

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.18

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse-0.20scores less

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.48scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw

61%

Shimizu S-pulse or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

74%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

64%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

16%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

74%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

39%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

15%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

76%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

41%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

48%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.70 · 12 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.53 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.12 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

36%

level

26%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

39%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

T. Shiotani

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

H. ArakiOwn goal

13'

38'

46'

50'

61'

61'

S. Nakamura← T. Arslan

65'

T. Shiotani

67'

H. Nakahara← K. Matsuzaki

67'

A. Ahmedov← K. Kitagawa

74'

M. Nishihara← K. Kitazume

78'

Ryo Germain

81'

K. Miyamoto← Z. Uno

81'

K. Kozuka← T. Inui

90+2'

S. Koshimichi← H. Araki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShimizuSanfrecce

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots12

1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.49

5Corners6

12Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots12

1On Target2

8Off Target4

2Blocked6

8Inside Box3

3Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

382Total Passes572

274Accurate Passes460

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3