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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
8/10/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 25Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima48%
×Draw28%
Shimizu S-pulse25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.36
Shimizu S-pulse
0.89

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 53% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.26
Shimizu S-pulse
0.97

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.81
Shimizu S-pulse
1.47

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
75%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Shimizu S-pulse
72%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
52%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
23%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
74%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
39%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
16%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
59%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
22%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
66%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.26 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
48%
level
28%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
S. SasakiSanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima · D
7.5

Match Events

42'
Kai Matsuzaki
46'
S. Nakano← N. Arai
46'
S. Higashi← M. Kato
56'
K. Kitagawa← R. Yamahara
57'
T. Inui← K. Matsuzaki
60'
Y. Nakajima← H. Kawabe
64'
Capixaba
70'
N. Maeda← K. Kinoshita
70'
Y. Yoshida← Capixaba
70'
H. Nakahara← T. Takahashi
83'
Marcos Junior← S. Tanaka
84'
K. Kitazume← S. Takagi

Possession

43%Sanfrecce

Shots

14Sanfrecce

Pass accuracy

48%Sanfrecce

Statistics

SanfrecceShimizu
Overview
43%Possession57%
14Total Shots14
1.84Expected Goals (xG)0.87
3Corners5
18Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots14
3On Target2
8Off Target9
3Blocked3
10Inside Box5
4Outside Box9
Passing
43%Possession57%
316Total Passes434
224Accurate Passes340
71%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Shimizu S-pulse drew 0-0 in J1 League on August 10, 2025.

Shimizu S-pulse controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima in Hiroshima.