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Shimizu S-pulse vs Roasso Kumamoto — J2 League 2018

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
11/10/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 38IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse56%
×Draw23%
Roasso Kumamoto21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.76
Roasso Kumamoto
0.98

Shimizu S-pulse creates 80% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 105 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
2.02
Roasso Kumamoto
1.32

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
0.64
Roasso Kumamoto
1.50

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
79%
Shimizu S-pulse or Roasso Kumamoto
77%
Draw or Roasso Kumamoto
44%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
31%
Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
83%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
52%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
26%
Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
62%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
26%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
73%
Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 2.02 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.76

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.32 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
56%
level
23%
Roasso Kumamoto scores more
21%

Shimizu S-pulse at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 Roasso Kumamoto

Shimizu S-pulse beat Roasso Kumamoto 1-0 in J2 League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.