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Roasso Kumamoto vs Shimizu S-pulse — J2 League 2018

Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
2/25/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 1Egao Kenko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto28%
×Draw25%
Shimizu S-pulse47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roasso Kumamoto
1.17
Shimizu S-pulse
1.57

Shimizu S-pulse creates 34% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 43 away

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.18
Shimizu S-pulse
1.63

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.51
Shimizu S-pulse
1.16

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw
53%
Roasso Kumamoto or Shimizu S-pulse
75%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
72%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
11%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
69%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
33%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
11%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
79%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
46%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
38%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.51 · 108 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.18 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.63 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more
28%
level
25%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
47%

Shimizu S-pulse at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roasso Kumamoto vs Shimizu S-pulse

Shimizu S-pulse beat Roasso Kumamoto 2-1 in J2 League on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Egao Kenko Stadium in Kumamoto.